Final 2012 Electoral College and Popular Vote Prediction

Barack Obama: 50.2%; 294 Electoral Votes

Mitt Romney: 48.5%; 244 Electoral Votes

Others: 1.3%

On the Sunday before the election, Pres. Obama appears to have the momentum on his side.  If he wins the election, Republicans will claim for decades that this was due to Hurricane Sandy.  I had the president winning by a slightly narrower margin before the hurricane, so I disagree with that, but I do think over the course of the last few days, the president has gained enough strength to get over 50% in the popular vote.

The Republicans' late push into Minnesota and Pennsylvania (and less so into Michigan) appears to be more a sign of desperation than confidence (though they dearly would like to portray it as the latter).  Months ago, I expected pro-Romney Super PACs to spend their largesse to try to soften the president's lead in MN, PA, and OR -- but they never did.  Now, it's too late.  The only state the Republicans were able to add to the battleground is WI, and while it will be close, the president should hang on there.

Below, I've listed the states and electoral votes I assign to each candidate.  The higher the state on the list, the more safe it is.  Pres. Obama starts with 178 safe electoral votes and Gov. Romney with 158.  The five closest states are NH, CO, FL, VA, and IA.  I give the president three of these and Gov. Romney two -- but Romney would need to do more than sweep these five states.  He would also need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin.  I currently have Wisconsin as the "tipping point" state -- where the winner will claim the 270th electoral vote.  Comments and opinions are welcome.

Likely Obama (65 electoral votes)

Michigan

New Mexico

Oregon

Minnesota

Pennsylvania

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Nevada

Lean Obama (51)

Ohio

Wisconsin

Virginia

Iowa

New Hampshire

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Likely Romney (33)

Indiana

Missouri

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

Arizona

Lean Romney (53)

North Carolina

Florida

Colorado