Vulnerable House Incumbents, Post-Foley Edition

For several years, I was convinced that Democrats would not be able to recapture the House until 2012 at the earliest, because it would take another round of redistricting to undo the current map of incumbent protection and outright gerrymandering. Against all the odds, Democrats are indeed on the cusp of retaking the House. The fact that some of the most competitive districts in the nation this year are in ruby-red Republican areas speaks to the utter failure of our current one-party government. The downside for Democrats is that some of these districts will be very hard to retain in 2008.

Democrats need 15 seats to reclaim the House. As of today, I'd predict they gain 25. That's not necessarily the top 25 listed below, but rather all of the leaning Democratic seats, most of the "toss-ups" (all of which currently have the Republican under 50% in polling), and a few of the leaning Republican or Republican favored seats.

Republican Seats Leaning Democratic
1. TX-22 (Open - DeLay)
2. AZ-08 (Open - Kolbe)
3. FL-16 (Open - Foley)
4. CO-07 (Open - Beauprez)
5. NY-26 (Reynolds)
6. IN-08 (Hostettler)
7. IA-01 (Open - Nussle)
8. PA-10 (Sherwood)
9. IN-02 (Chocola)
10. OH-18 (Open - Ney)
11. IN-09 (Sodrel)
12. NC-11 (Taylor)

Republican Toss-Up Seats
13. IL-06 (Open - Hyde)
14. WI-08 (Open - Green)
15. NM-01 (Wilson)
16. CT-02 (Simmons)
17. PA-06 (Gerlach)
18. PA-07 (Weldon)
19. OH-15 (Pryce)
20. VA-02 (Drake)
21. CT-04 (Shays)
22. NY-24 (Open - Boehlert)
23. KY-04 (Davis)
24. FL-22 (Shaw)
25. FL-13 (Open - Harris)
26. OH-01 (Chabot)

Leaning Republican
27. MN-06 (Open - Kennedy)
28. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
29. CA-11 (Pombo)
30. NV-02 (Open - Gibbons)
31. WA-08 (Reichert)

Republican Favored
32. CT-05 (Johnson)
33. NV-03 (Porter)
34. CA-04 (Doolittle)
35. ID-01 (Open - Otter)
36. NC-08 (Hayes)
37. AZ-05 (Hayworth)
38. OH-02 (Schmidt)
39. NY-29 (Kuhl)
40. NH-02 (Bass)
41. NY-20 (Sweeney)
42. KY-03 (Northup)
43. KY-02 (Lewis)
44. NY-25 (Walsh)
45. MN-01 (Gutknecht)
46. CO-05 (Open - Hefley)
47. WY-AL (Cubin)
48. TX-23 (Bonilla)
49. NE-03 (Open - Osborne)
50. CO-04 (Musgrave)
51. NY-19 (Kelly)
52. NJ-07 (Ferguson)

Currently, I'm predicting that Democrats don't lose any of their current seats, which would be, I believe, unprecedented (even in 1994, Republicans lost some of their open seats).

Vulnerable Democratic Seats
1. IL-08 (Bean)
2. GA-12 (Barrow)
3. VT-AL (Open - Sanders)
4. IA-03 (Boswell)
5. TX-17 (Edwards)
6. GA-08 (Marshall)
7. WV-01 (Mollohan)
8. LA-03 (Melancon)
9. OR-05 (Hooley)
10. LA-02 (Jefferson)