2014 Election Eve Predictions

2014

Governors

Democrats to gain (in order of margin of victory): PA, ME, KS, FL, MI (+3 net)

Republicans to gain: AR, MA

Independent to gain (from Republicans): AK

Others to watch: potential Democratic gains (in order of likelihood): WI, GA, AZ
potential Republican gains: CT, IL, CO, MD, RI, NH

Senate

Republicans to gain: MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, AK, IA, CO (+7 net)

Democrats to gain: none

Independents to gain: KS

Others to watch: potential Democratic gain: GA
potential Republican gains: NC, NH

House

Democrats to gain: CA-31, NE-02, FL-02, WV-02, IA-03

Republicans to gain: NC-07, NY-21, UT-04, WV-03, IL-12, FL-26, AZ-01, NY-01, MN-08 (+4 net)

Others to watch: potential Democratic gains: AR-02, CO-06, AR-04, NJ-03, MI-07, MI-06, CA-21, WI-06
potential Republican gains: NY-24, IL-10, CA-07, AZ-02, IA-01, NH-01

Final 2012 Electoral College and Popular Vote Prediction

Barack Obama: 50.2%; 294 Electoral Votes

Mitt Romney: 48.5%; 244 Electoral Votes

Others: 1.3%

On the Sunday before the election, Pres. Obama appears to have the momentum on his side.  If he wins the election, Republicans will claim for decades that this was due to Hurricane Sandy.  I had the president winning by a slightly narrower margin before the hurricane, so I disagree with that, but I do think over the course of the last few days, the president has gained enough strength to get over 50% in the popular vote.

The Republicans' late push into Minnesota and Pennsylvania (and less so into Michigan) appears to be more a sign of desperation than confidence (though they dearly would like to portray it as the latter).  Months ago, I expected pro-Romney Super PACs to spend their largesse to try to soften the president's lead in MN, PA, and OR -- but they never did.  Now, it's too late.  The only state the Republicans were able to add to the battleground is WI, and while it will be close, the president should hang on there.

Below, I've listed the states and electoral votes I assign to each candidate.  The higher the state on the list, the more safe it is.  Pres. Obama starts with 178 safe electoral votes and Gov. Romney with 158.  The five closest states are NH, CO, FL, VA, and IA.  I give the president three of these and Gov. Romney two -- but Romney would need to do more than sweep these five states.  He would also need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin.  I currently have Wisconsin as the "tipping point" state -- where the winner will claim the 270th electoral vote.  Comments and opinions are welcome.

Likely Obama (65 electoral votes)

Michigan

New Mexico

Oregon

Minnesota

Pennsylvania

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Nevada

Lean Obama (51)

Ohio

Wisconsin

Virginia

Iowa

New Hampshire

*******************

Likely Romney (33)

Indiana

Missouri

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

Arizona

Lean Romney (53)

North Carolina

Florida

Colorado

Final 2012 House of Representatives Prediction

Republicans: 235 (-7)
Democrats: 200

Democrats need 25 seats to pick up the House and it does not appear they will come close.  As of Sunday afternoon, I'm predicting a Democratic pick-up of 6 seats.  The range of potential outcomes is probably most likely between 0 and 12.  There's probably about a 20% chance the final numbers are outside of that range.

The Republicans did not really gain seats through redistricting (which they controlled in most states), but they were able to shore up enough vulnerable incumbents to remove them from the danger zone.  Going into Election Day, the Republicans start with 191 safe seats.  These include pick-ups in Arkansas-04, North Carolina-13, and four new seats.  The Democrats start with 157 safe seats, including five new seats.

Below, I break down the races into 3 other categories: slight (final margin within 5 points), lean (10 points), and likely (20 points).  I'm picking all races, but there are about 11 I don't have much confidence in.  For the Democrats, these are AZ-01, FL-18, IL-13, OH-06, and TX-23.  For the Republicans, these are CT-05, IL-10, MI-11, NH-01, PA-12, and RI-01.  All are listed below.  If you don't see it listed, that's because it's considered safe.  Seats in bold are pick-ups from the other party.  Comments and opinions are welcome.

Slight Democratic (27)

AZ-09 (NEW)

CA-07 (Lungren)

CA-10 (Denham)

CA-24 (Capps)

CA-26 (Open – Gallegly)

CA-36 (Bono Mack)

CA-52 (Bilbray)

FL-18 (West)

FL-26 (Rivera)

GA-12 (Barrow)

IL-11 (Biggert)

IL-12 (Open – Costello)

IL-13 (Open – Johnson)

IL-17 (Schilling)

KY-06 (Chandler)

MI-01 (Benishek)

MN-08 (Cravaack)

NV-04 (NEW)     NH-01 (Guinta)

NH-02 (Bass)

NY-01 (Bishop)

NY-21 (Owens)

NY-24 (Buerkle)

NC-07 (McIntyre)

OH-06 (Johnson)   RI-01 (Cicilline)

TX-23 (Canseco)

Lean Democratic (9)

CA-03 (Garamendi)

CA-09 (McNerny)

CA-41 (NEW)

CA-47 (NEW)

CO-07 (Perlmutter)

FL-22 (Open – West)

IA-02 (Loebsack)

NY-25 (Slaughter)

WA-01 (Open – Inslee)

Likely Democratic (7)

AZ-02 (Barber)

FL-09 (NEW)

IL-08 (Walsh)

IA-01 (Braley)

ME-02 (Michaud)

MD-06 (Bartlett)

WV-03 (Rahall) ************************ Slight Republican (18) AZ-01 (Open - Gosar) CA-21 (NEW) CO-06 (Coffman) CT-05 (Open – Murphy) FL-02 (Southerland) FL-10 (Webster) IL-10 (Dold)                              IA-03 (Boswell/Latham)                IA-04 (King)                                   MI-11 (Open – McCotter) MN-06 (Bachmann)                        NY-18 (Hayworth) NY-19 (Gibson) NY-27 (Hochul) OH-16 (Renacci/Sutton) PA-12 (Critz)                       TN-04 (Desjarlais)                TX-14 (Open – Paul) Lean Republican (10) CO-03 (Tipton) IN-02 (Open – Donnelly)             MA-06 (Tierney) MI-03 (Amash) MT-AL (Open – Rehberg) NE-02 (Terry) NV-03 (Heck) NC-08 (Kissell) UT-04 (Matheson) WI-07 (Duffy) Likely Republican (16) FL-13 (Young) FL-16 (Buchanan) IN-08 (Bucshon) IN-09 (Young) MN-02 (Kline) NJ-03 (Runyan)                                      NY-11 (Grimm)                                 NY-23 (Reed) NC-11 (Open – Shuler) ND-AL (Open – Berg)                                       OK-02 (Open – Boren) PA-06 (Gerlach)                                                PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) SD-AL (Noem) VA-02 (Rigell) WI-08 (Ribble)