Super Tuesday Predictions

Here are my predictions for tomorrow. The Democratic race is very volatile. If NH and SC didn't tell us that pollsters are having problems this year, there are polls out on the same day in the same states today varying by 10 points. So, this is probably a fool's errand, but listed below are the states I expect Clinton or Obama to carry, starting with their strongest, showing the number of delegates, margin of victory, and the delegate margin for that candidate in that state (assuming perfect proportionality, which in any given state won't happen, but it provides a good guesstimate when looking at all 22 states in total). The states with asterisks are the ones that could go the other way if there's a wave. (And I'm not predicting American Samoa!)

Clinton

1. Arkansas (35 delegates total, +26% victory margin, +9 delegates)

2. Oklahoma (38, +20%, +8)

3. New York (232, +18%, +42)

4. Tennessee (68, +10%, +6)

5. New Jersey (107, +6%, +7)

6. New Mexico* (26, +6%, +2)

7. Massachusetts* (93, +6%, +5)

8. Arizona* (56, +6%, +4)

9. Missouri* (72, +2%, +2)

10. California* (370, +2%, +8)

Obama

1. Illinois (153 delegates total, +32% victory margin, +49 delegates)

2. Idaho (18, +32%, +6)

3. Alaska (13, +24%, +3)

4. Kansas (32, +20%, +6)

5. Utah (23, +20%, +5)

6. Georgia (87, +14%, +13)

7. North Dakota (13, +14%, +1)

8. Delaware (15, +14%, +3)

9. Minnesota (72, +8%, +6)

10. Colorado* (55, +6%, +3)

11. Alabama* (52, +6%, +4)

12. Connecticut* (48, +6%, +2)

On the delegate front, there are 1600+ delegates being handed out tomorrow. If either candidate wins tomorrow by a margin of over 100 delegates, they should be considered the frontrunner. This analysis results in a net gain for Obama of a mere 8 delegates. Clinton is winning bigger states, but she will win them by smaller margins than Obama wins his. Also, Obama should win Illinois by over 30% and Clinton may be held to under a 20% margin of victory in New York. Any state with an asterisk (and NJ, for that matter) will be sufficiently close that the winner will only get a handful of delegates more than the loser.

As for the Republicans, Romney will probably only win 4-6 states and will be way behind on delegates after tomorrow, but I'm very curious to see if he can win California. It's getting very close, and independents can't vote in the CA GOP primary. If he can win CA, he's not completely out of it.