Vulnerable House Seats

One of my hobbies is political predictions. After reviewing district demographics, fundraising, candidate strength, and some (hopefully) educated guesses, the following is a list of vulnerable House seats in 2006. We'll start with the Republican seats. #1 is the most vulnerable seat, etc., etc.

Tier 1 (Toss-up)

1. CO-07 (Open - Beauprez)
2. IA-01 (Open - Nussle)
3. PA-06 (Gerlach)
4. IN-09 (Sodrel)
5. AZ-08 (Open - Kolbe)
6. IN-08 (Hostettler)
7. OH-18 (Ney)
8. KY-04 (Davis)
9. FL-22 (Shaw)
10. CT-02 (Simmons)
11. NC-11 (Taylor)
12. NM-01 (Wilson)

Tier 2 (Lean Republican)

1. MN-06 (Open - Kennedy)
2. CT-04 (Shays)
3. WI-08 (Open - Green)
4. IL-06 (Open - Hyde)
5. NY-24 (Open - Boehlert)
6. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
7. OH-15 (Pryce)
8. CA-50 (Open - Cunningham)
9. WA-08 (Reichert)
10. PA-07 (Weldon)

Tier 3 (Likely Republican)

1. CT-05 (Johnson)
2. IN-02 (Chocola)
3. TX-22 (Open - DeLay)
4. OH-01 (Chabot)
5. AZ-05 (Hayworth)
6. NY-20 (Sweeney)
7. CO-04 (Musgrave)
8. PA-10 (Sherwood)
9. VA-02 (Drake)
10. FL-13 (Open - Harris)
11. NY-29 (Kuhl)
12. FL-09 (Open - Bilirakis)
13. NY-26 (Reynolds)
14. NV-02 (Open - Gibbons)

Tier 4 (Long Shots)

1. NH-02 (Bass)
2. CA-11 (Pombo)
3. KY-03 (Northup)
4. KY-02 (Lewis)
5. NY-19 (Kelly)
6. NV-03 (Porter)
7. NJ-07 (Ferguson)
8. NY-25 (Walsh)
9. NH-01 (Bradley)
10. FL-08 (Keller)
11. MN-02 (Kline)
12. LA-07 (Boustany)
13. NC-08 (Hayes)
14. PA-04 (Hart)
15. IL-11 (Weller)
16. WY-AL (Cubin)
17. MN-01 (Gutknecht)
18. MI-08 (Rogers)
19. CA-04 (Doolittle)
20. FL-16 (Foley)

Of course, this list will change a lot between now and November. For example, I don't expect Bob Ney will be the eventual nominee in OH-18. If he decides not to run again, the seat will drop to the third or fourth tier. Now for the Democrats:

Tier 1 (Toss-up)

1. OH-06 (Open - Strickland)
2. IL-08 (Bean)
3. TX-17 (Edwards)

Tier 2 (Lean Democratic)

1. LA-03 (Melancon)
2. CO-03 (Salazar)
3. GA-08 (Marshall)
4. IA-03 (Boswell)
5. VT-AL (Open - Sanders)

Tier 3 (Likely Democratic)

1. GA-12 (Barrow)
2. WV-01 (Mollohan)
3. SC-05 (Spratt)
4. WA-02 (Larsen)
5. IL-17 (Open - Evans)
6. UT-02 (Matheson)
7. ND-AL (Pomeroy)
8. KS-03 (Moore)
9. OH-13 (Open - Brown)

Tier 4 (Long Shots)

1. MD-03 (Open - Cardin)
2. TN-04 (Davis)
3. OR-05 (Hooley)
4. NY-27 (Higgins)
5. NY-01 (Bishop)
6. PA-17 (Holden)
7. OR-01 (Wu)
8. IN-07 (Carson)
9. LA-02 (Jefferson)
10. SD-AL (Herseth)

As of today, I'm predicting a Democratic net gain of 11 seats, 4 short of a majority.