Final 2012 House of Representatives Prediction

Republicans: 235 (-7)
Democrats: 200

Democrats need 25 seats to pick up the House and it does not appear they will come close.  As of Sunday afternoon, I'm predicting a Democratic pick-up of 6 seats.  The range of potential outcomes is probably most likely between 0 and 12.  There's probably about a 20% chance the final numbers are outside of that range.

The Republicans did not really gain seats through redistricting (which they controlled in most states), but they were able to shore up enough vulnerable incumbents to remove them from the danger zone.  Going into Election Day, the Republicans start with 191 safe seats.  These include pick-ups in Arkansas-04, North Carolina-13, and four new seats.  The Democrats start with 157 safe seats, including five new seats.

Below, I break down the races into 3 other categories: slight (final margin within 5 points), lean (10 points), and likely (20 points).  I'm picking all races, but there are about 11 I don't have much confidence in.  For the Democrats, these are AZ-01, FL-18, IL-13, OH-06, and TX-23.  For the Republicans, these are CT-05, IL-10, MI-11, NH-01, PA-12, and RI-01.  All are listed below.  If you don't see it listed, that's because it's considered safe.  Seats in bold are pick-ups from the other party.  Comments and opinions are welcome.

Slight Democratic (27)

AZ-09 (NEW)

CA-07 (Lungren)

CA-10 (Denham)

CA-24 (Capps)

CA-26 (Open – Gallegly)

CA-36 (Bono Mack)

CA-52 (Bilbray)

FL-18 (West)

FL-26 (Rivera)

GA-12 (Barrow)

IL-11 (Biggert)

IL-12 (Open – Costello)

IL-13 (Open – Johnson)

IL-17 (Schilling)

KY-06 (Chandler)

MI-01 (Benishek)

MN-08 (Cravaack)

NV-04 (NEW)     NH-01 (Guinta)

NH-02 (Bass)

NY-01 (Bishop)

NY-21 (Owens)

NY-24 (Buerkle)

NC-07 (McIntyre)

OH-06 (Johnson)   RI-01 (Cicilline)

TX-23 (Canseco)

Lean Democratic (9)

CA-03 (Garamendi)

CA-09 (McNerny)

CA-41 (NEW)

CA-47 (NEW)

CO-07 (Perlmutter)

FL-22 (Open – West)

IA-02 (Loebsack)

NY-25 (Slaughter)

WA-01 (Open – Inslee)

Likely Democratic (7)

AZ-02 (Barber)

FL-09 (NEW)

IL-08 (Walsh)

IA-01 (Braley)

ME-02 (Michaud)

MD-06 (Bartlett)

WV-03 (Rahall) ************************ Slight Republican (18) AZ-01 (Open - Gosar) CA-21 (NEW) CO-06 (Coffman) CT-05 (Open – Murphy) FL-02 (Southerland) FL-10 (Webster) IL-10 (Dold)                              IA-03 (Boswell/Latham)                IA-04 (King)                                   MI-11 (Open – McCotter) MN-06 (Bachmann)                        NY-18 (Hayworth) NY-19 (Gibson) NY-27 (Hochul) OH-16 (Renacci/Sutton) PA-12 (Critz)                       TN-04 (Desjarlais)                TX-14 (Open – Paul) Lean Republican (10) CO-03 (Tipton) IN-02 (Open – Donnelly)             MA-06 (Tierney) MI-03 (Amash) MT-AL (Open – Rehberg) NE-02 (Terry) NV-03 (Heck) NC-08 (Kissell) UT-04 (Matheson) WI-07 (Duffy) Likely Republican (16) FL-13 (Young) FL-16 (Buchanan) IN-08 (Bucshon) IN-09 (Young) MN-02 (Kline) NJ-03 (Runyan)                                      NY-11 (Grimm)                                 NY-23 (Reed) NC-11 (Open – Shuler) ND-AL (Open – Berg)                                       OK-02 (Open – Boren) PA-06 (Gerlach)                                                PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) SD-AL (Noem) VA-02 (Rigell) WI-08 (Ribble)