2012 Electoral College Prediction

As of today, I see the President starting with 195 electoral votes in the bank and Mitt Romney with 170.  From there, here's the breakdown:

Likely Obama (22)
Maine's 2nd District (1)
Michigan (16)
New Mexico (5)

Likely Romney (21)
Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)

That gets us to Obama 217-191.  Then:

Lean Obama (30)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

Lean Romney (15)
North Carolina (15)

Obama 247-206.  That leaves 7 toss-up states, which I rank in order of likelihood to go to Romney:

1.  Florida (29)
2.  Ohio (18)
3.  Virginia (13)
4.  Iowa (6)
5.  Colorado (9)
6.  New Hampshire (4)
7.  Nevada (6)

As of today, I'd only give Florida to Romney.  That leaves us with Obama winning 303-235.  Romney would need to also win Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa to pull into the lead, 272-266.  There is a path for Romney, but there aren't many ways for him to get to 270.