2012 Senate Rankings and Predictions

2012 Senate Prediction

As of today, this is my ranking of the seats most likely to flip.

1.  Maine (R -- Open/Snowe).  Angus King.  We'll be hearing that name a lot between November and January.  After that?  We'll see.

2.  Nebraska (D -- Open/Nelson).  If the only dirt on Deb Fischer is that she was one of a handful of ranchers to get large government checks for setting aside grazing land, she will win.  Unless she proves to be not remotely ready for prime-time, she will sail through.

3.  North Dakota (D -- Open/Conrad).  This is going to be close.  I don't buy last week's Fargo Forum poll showing an 8-point Berg lead, but in the long run, he has the advantage.

4.  Massachusetts (R -- Brown).  Elizabeth Warren has had a bad couple of weeks, but I still think Scott Brown is the most endangered incumbent.

5. Missouri (D -- McCaskill). It's a remarkably weak Republican field, but the senator has clear vulnerabilities.

6. Montana (D -- Tester). Tester barely beat a flawed incumbent in a great Democratic year 6 years ago. It will be another nail-biter.

7.  Wisconsin (D -- Open/Kohl).  I don't expect the Republicans to nominate Tommy Thompson, but if they did, this would move even higher.

8.  Nevada (R -- Heller).  Lots of people wonder how Shelley Berkeley will sell in northern Nevada.  The better question is how will Heller do in Clark County. 

9.  Virginia (D -- Open/Webb).  I expect Kaine to ride African-American turnout to a narrow victory.

10. New Mexico (D -- Open/Bingaman). It's not clear how targeted New Mexico will be by the presidential campaigns. The Democrats could use ramped-up Hispanic turnout here.

11.  Indiana (R -- Open/Lugar).  Mourdock agrees with repealing the 17th Amendment?  The Democrats assigned a tracker to him throughout the primary campaign -- expect some interesting ads this fall.

12.  Ohio (D -- Brown).  I've been surprised by Mandel's staying power despite some bad headlines about how he's run the State Treasurer's office.

13.  Arizona (R -- Open/Kyl).  The big question here is whether Jeff Flake needs to start sweating his primary.

14.  Michigan (D - Stabenow).  A more moderate Republican candidate could have made this a real race.

15.  Florida (D - Nelson).  One would have thought that Rep. Connie Mack was being groomed for a Senate run someday.  He's had a very rough start.  George Lemieux might get the nomination yet.

16.  Hawaii (D -- Open/Akaka).  Not going to be competitive.

As of today, I predict the top 6 seats will flip.  That would leave the Senate with a 49-49 Senate with Sanders joining the Democrats and ... Angus King.