Final 2012 Senate Prediction

Democrats: 54 (including 2 Independents) (+1)

Republicans: 46

It looks like the Democrats will get lucky again in the Senate this year -- and they'll need all the help they can get, because the 2014 map looks brutal with plenty of red-state Democratic Senate seats up for grabs.  I predict the Democrats will pick up one seat on Tuesday.

Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly look ready to join the ranks of Harry Reid, Chris Coons, and Michael Bennet as Democratic senators primarily elected because the Republicans nominated singularly unacceptable nominees in competitive races.  If the Republicans had those 5 seats, they would have the majority.

In addition to Donnelly, Democrats will pick up Massachusetts and while Angus King will never declare himself to be a Democrat, it's hard to imagine the Maine Independent will ever side with the Republicans in a leadership vote.  If nothing else, the Republican ads run against him this year should take care of that.

Shelley Berkley's unfavorable ratings are likely too high for Obama to pull her across the finish line over Dean Heller in Nevada.  If Obama wins by more than 6 points there, maybe she can pull off an upset, but that looks like a 1 in 3 chance at the moment.  In Arizona, Rich Carmona will need unprecedented Hispanic turnout against Jeff Flake.  It's conceivable, but his chances are a little worse.

Among Democratic-held seats, Bob Kerrey's late surge is probably insufficient to overcome Nebraska's Republican tilt, and with the help of super PAC money, Deb Fischer survives some poor debate performances.  Heidi Heitkamp was the one Democrat who could win North Dakota, but I think the oil-patch workers who are new to the state will ultimately elect Rick Berg.

Montana is the purest toss-up in the nation.  I'll give the tiniest of edges to Jon Tester, but I don't feel confident about it.  Tommy Thompson has caught up in Wisconsin with the benefit of negative advertising in the last 2 weeks, but most polls give Tammy Baldwin a slight edge, so I'll stick with that.  Tim Kaine should run a point or two ahead of Pres. Obama in Virginia and Republican bids elsewhere either fall victim to weak candidates (Ohio - Mandel, Florida - Mack) or the fundamental Democratic nature of the state (Connecticut - McMahon, Pennsylvania - Smith, New Mexico - Wilson).  

States are listed below in order of likelihood of defeat for the incumbent party.  Seats below the underlining are completely out of play.  All comments and opinions welcome.

Democratic Losses (2)                                                 

1.  NE (Open – Nelson)                                                  

2.  ND (Open – Conrad)                                                

Democratic Holds                                                        

3.  MT (Tester)                                                               

4.  WI (Open – Kohl)                                                     

5.  VA (Open – Webb)                                                   

6.  CT (Open – Lieberman)                                             

7.  OH (Brown)                                                              

8.  PA (Casey)                                                                

9.  FL (Nelson)                                                              

10.  NM (Open – Bingaman)                                       

11.  MO (McCaskill)                                                                

12.  MI (Stabenow)

13.  NJ (Menendez)

14.  HI (Open – Akaka)

15.  WV (Manchin)

16.  CA (Feinstein)

17.  MD (Cardin)

18.  WA (Cantwell)

19.  DE (Carper)

20.  MN (Klobuchar)

21.  VT (Sanders)

22.  NY (Gillibrand)

23.  RI (Whitehouse)

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Republican Losses (3)
1.  ME (Open - Snowe)
2.  MA (Brown)
3.  IN (Open - Lugar)

Republican Holds
4.  NV (Heller)
5.  AZ (Open - Kyl)
6.  TX (Open - Hutchison)
7.  MS (Wicker)
8.  TN (Corker)
9.  UT (Hatch)
10.  WY (Barasso)