Final 2012 Electoral College and Popular Vote Prediction

Barack Obama: 50.2%; 294 Electoral Votes

Mitt Romney: 48.5%; 244 Electoral Votes

Others: 1.3%

On the Sunday before the election, Pres. Obama appears to have the momentum on his side.  If he wins the election, Republicans will claim for decades that this was due to Hurricane Sandy.  I had the president winning by a slightly narrower margin before the hurricane, so I disagree with that, but I do think over the course of the last few days, the president has gained enough strength to get over 50% in the popular vote.

The Republicans' late push into Minnesota and Pennsylvania (and less so into Michigan) appears to be more a sign of desperation than confidence (though they dearly would like to portray it as the latter).  Months ago, I expected pro-Romney Super PACs to spend their largesse to try to soften the president's lead in MN, PA, and OR -- but they never did.  Now, it's too late.  The only state the Republicans were able to add to the battleground is WI, and while it will be close, the president should hang on there.

Below, I've listed the states and electoral votes I assign to each candidate.  The higher the state on the list, the more safe it is.  Pres. Obama starts with 178 safe electoral votes and Gov. Romney with 158.  The five closest states are NH, CO, FL, VA, and IA.  I give the president three of these and Gov. Romney two -- but Romney would need to do more than sweep these five states.  He would also need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin.  I currently have Wisconsin as the "tipping point" state -- where the winner will claim the 270th electoral vote.  Comments and opinions are welcome.

Likely Obama (65 electoral votes)

Michigan

New Mexico

Oregon

Minnesota

Pennsylvania

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Nevada

Lean Obama (51)

Ohio

Wisconsin

Virginia

Iowa

New Hampshire

*******************

Likely Romney (33)

Indiana

Missouri

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

Arizona

Lean Romney (53)

North Carolina

Florida

Colorado

Final 2012 House of Representatives Prediction

Republicans: 235 (-7)
Democrats: 200

Democrats need 25 seats to pick up the House and it does not appear they will come close.  As of Sunday afternoon, I'm predicting a Democratic pick-up of 6 seats.  The range of potential outcomes is probably most likely between 0 and 12.  There's probably about a 20% chance the final numbers are outside of that range.

The Republicans did not really gain seats through redistricting (which they controlled in most states), but they were able to shore up enough vulnerable incumbents to remove them from the danger zone.  Going into Election Day, the Republicans start with 191 safe seats.  These include pick-ups in Arkansas-04, North Carolina-13, and four new seats.  The Democrats start with 157 safe seats, including five new seats.

Below, I break down the races into 3 other categories: slight (final margin within 5 points), lean (10 points), and likely (20 points).  I'm picking all races, but there are about 11 I don't have much confidence in.  For the Democrats, these are AZ-01, FL-18, IL-13, OH-06, and TX-23.  For the Republicans, these are CT-05, IL-10, MI-11, NH-01, PA-12, and RI-01.  All are listed below.  If you don't see it listed, that's because it's considered safe.  Seats in bold are pick-ups from the other party.  Comments and opinions are welcome.

Slight Democratic (27)

AZ-09 (NEW)

CA-07 (Lungren)

CA-10 (Denham)

CA-24 (Capps)

CA-26 (Open – Gallegly)

CA-36 (Bono Mack)

CA-52 (Bilbray)

FL-18 (West)

FL-26 (Rivera)

GA-12 (Barrow)

IL-11 (Biggert)

IL-12 (Open – Costello)

IL-13 (Open – Johnson)

IL-17 (Schilling)

KY-06 (Chandler)

MI-01 (Benishek)

MN-08 (Cravaack)

NV-04 (NEW)     NH-01 (Guinta)

NH-02 (Bass)

NY-01 (Bishop)

NY-21 (Owens)

NY-24 (Buerkle)

NC-07 (McIntyre)

OH-06 (Johnson)   RI-01 (Cicilline)

TX-23 (Canseco)

Lean Democratic (9)

CA-03 (Garamendi)

CA-09 (McNerny)

CA-41 (NEW)

CA-47 (NEW)

CO-07 (Perlmutter)

FL-22 (Open – West)

IA-02 (Loebsack)

NY-25 (Slaughter)

WA-01 (Open – Inslee)

Likely Democratic (7)

AZ-02 (Barber)

FL-09 (NEW)

IL-08 (Walsh)

IA-01 (Braley)

ME-02 (Michaud)

MD-06 (Bartlett)

WV-03 (Rahall) ************************ Slight Republican (18) AZ-01 (Open - Gosar) CA-21 (NEW) CO-06 (Coffman) CT-05 (Open – Murphy) FL-02 (Southerland) FL-10 (Webster) IL-10 (Dold)                              IA-03 (Boswell/Latham)                IA-04 (King)                                   MI-11 (Open – McCotter) MN-06 (Bachmann)                        NY-18 (Hayworth) NY-19 (Gibson) NY-27 (Hochul) OH-16 (Renacci/Sutton) PA-12 (Critz)                       TN-04 (Desjarlais)                TX-14 (Open – Paul) Lean Republican (10) CO-03 (Tipton) IN-02 (Open – Donnelly)             MA-06 (Tierney) MI-03 (Amash) MT-AL (Open – Rehberg) NE-02 (Terry) NV-03 (Heck) NC-08 (Kissell) UT-04 (Matheson) WI-07 (Duffy) Likely Republican (16) FL-13 (Young) FL-16 (Buchanan) IN-08 (Bucshon) IN-09 (Young) MN-02 (Kline) NJ-03 (Runyan)                                      NY-11 (Grimm)                                 NY-23 (Reed) NC-11 (Open – Shuler) ND-AL (Open – Berg)                                       OK-02 (Open – Boren) PA-06 (Gerlach)                                                PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) SD-AL (Noem) VA-02 (Rigell) WI-08 (Ribble)

Final 2012 Senate Prediction

Democrats: 54 (including 2 Independents) (+1)

Republicans: 46

It looks like the Democrats will get lucky again in the Senate this year -- and they'll need all the help they can get, because the 2014 map looks brutal with plenty of red-state Democratic Senate seats up for grabs.  I predict the Democrats will pick up one seat on Tuesday.

Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly look ready to join the ranks of Harry Reid, Chris Coons, and Michael Bennet as Democratic senators primarily elected because the Republicans nominated singularly unacceptable nominees in competitive races.  If the Republicans had those 5 seats, they would have the majority.

In addition to Donnelly, Democrats will pick up Massachusetts and while Angus King will never declare himself to be a Democrat, it's hard to imagine the Maine Independent will ever side with the Republicans in a leadership vote.  If nothing else, the Republican ads run against him this year should take care of that.

Shelley Berkley's unfavorable ratings are likely too high for Obama to pull her across the finish line over Dean Heller in Nevada.  If Obama wins by more than 6 points there, maybe she can pull off an upset, but that looks like a 1 in 3 chance at the moment.  In Arizona, Rich Carmona will need unprecedented Hispanic turnout against Jeff Flake.  It's conceivable, but his chances are a little worse.

Among Democratic-held seats, Bob Kerrey's late surge is probably insufficient to overcome Nebraska's Republican tilt, and with the help of super PAC money, Deb Fischer survives some poor debate performances.  Heidi Heitkamp was the one Democrat who could win North Dakota, but I think the oil-patch workers who are new to the state will ultimately elect Rick Berg.

Montana is the purest toss-up in the nation.  I'll give the tiniest of edges to Jon Tester, but I don't feel confident about it.  Tommy Thompson has caught up in Wisconsin with the benefit of negative advertising in the last 2 weeks, but most polls give Tammy Baldwin a slight edge, so I'll stick with that.  Tim Kaine should run a point or two ahead of Pres. Obama in Virginia and Republican bids elsewhere either fall victim to weak candidates (Ohio - Mandel, Florida - Mack) or the fundamental Democratic nature of the state (Connecticut - McMahon, Pennsylvania - Smith, New Mexico - Wilson).  

States are listed below in order of likelihood of defeat for the incumbent party.  Seats below the underlining are completely out of play.  All comments and opinions welcome.

Democratic Losses (2)                                                 

1.  NE (Open – Nelson)                                                  

2.  ND (Open – Conrad)                                                

Democratic Holds                                                        

3.  MT (Tester)                                                               

4.  WI (Open – Kohl)                                                     

5.  VA (Open – Webb)                                                   

6.  CT (Open – Lieberman)                                             

7.  OH (Brown)                                                              

8.  PA (Casey)                                                                

9.  FL (Nelson)                                                              

10.  NM (Open – Bingaman)                                       

11.  MO (McCaskill)                                                                

12.  MI (Stabenow)

13.  NJ (Menendez)

14.  HI (Open – Akaka)

15.  WV (Manchin)

16.  CA (Feinstein)

17.  MD (Cardin)

18.  WA (Cantwell)

19.  DE (Carper)

20.  MN (Klobuchar)

21.  VT (Sanders)

22.  NY (Gillibrand)

23.  RI (Whitehouse)

******************************

Republican Losses (3)
1.  ME (Open - Snowe)
2.  MA (Brown)
3.  IN (Open - Lugar)

Republican Holds
4.  NV (Heller)
5.  AZ (Open - Kyl)
6.  TX (Open - Hutchison)
7.  MS (Wicker)
8.  TN (Corker)
9.  UT (Hatch)
10.  WY (Barasso)