2012 Senate Prediction
As of today, this is my ranking of the seats most likely to flip.
1. Maine (R -- Open/Snowe). Angus King. We'll be hearing that name a lot between November and January. After that? We'll see.
2. Nebraska (D -- Open/Nelson). If the only dirt on Deb Fischer is that she was one of a handful of ranchers to get large government checks for setting aside grazing land, she will win. Unless she proves to be not remotely ready for prime-time, she will sail through.
3. North Dakota (D -- Open/Conrad). This is going to be close. I don't buy last week's Fargo Forum poll showing an 8-point Berg lead, but in the long run, he has the advantage.
4. Massachusetts (R -- Brown). Elizabeth Warren has had a bad couple of weeks, but I still think Scott Brown is the most endangered incumbent.
5. Missouri (D -- McCaskill). It's a remarkably weak Republican field, but the senator has clear vulnerabilities.
6. Montana (D -- Tester). Tester barely beat a flawed incumbent in a great Democratic year 6 years ago. It will be another nail-biter.
7. Wisconsin (D -- Open/Kohl). I don't expect the Republicans to nominate Tommy Thompson, but if they did, this would move even higher.
8. Nevada (R -- Heller). Lots of people wonder how Shelley Berkeley will sell in northern Nevada. The better question is how will Heller do in Clark County.
9. Virginia (D -- Open/Webb). I expect Kaine to ride African-American turnout to a narrow victory.
10. New Mexico (D -- Open/Bingaman). It's not clear how targeted New Mexico will be by the presidential campaigns. The Democrats could use ramped-up Hispanic turnout here.
11. Indiana (R -- Open/Lugar). Mourdock agrees with repealing the 17th Amendment? The Democrats assigned a tracker to him throughout the primary campaign -- expect some interesting ads this fall.
12. Ohio (D -- Brown). I've been surprised by Mandel's staying power despite some bad headlines about how he's run the State Treasurer's office.
13. Arizona (R -- Open/Kyl). The big question here is whether Jeff Flake needs to start sweating his primary.
14. Michigan (D - Stabenow). A more moderate Republican candidate could have made this a real race.
15. Florida (D - Nelson). One would have thought that Rep. Connie Mack was being groomed for a Senate run someday. He's had a very rough start. George Lemieux might get the nomination yet.
16. Hawaii (D -- Open/Akaka). Not going to be competitive.
As of today, I predict the top 6 seats will flip. That would leave the Senate with a 49-49 Senate with Sanders joining the Democrats and ... Angus King.
